Q4/2008.
Figure 14: Real GDP in major currency areas
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Index Q4/2007 = 100.
32 Of course, heavy fiscal policy measures alongside with substantial [...] total labor force. Real GDP Index (2005 = 100).
Sources: World Bank and Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
This is, however, in stark contrast to the experience by the Indian public as reported [...]
Note: Data not seasonally adjusted. Index: 1/2002 = 100.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
The steep economic upswing in Greece came finally to a halt at the end of 2006 followed
date, we form moving 4-week
averages. The rather moderate development up to the beginning of the 21st century is clearly
evident; the price increases that subsequently ensued emerge clearly from the end
0,4
0,6
0,8
1,0
1,2
KreditkarteE-Geld
DebitkarteBargeld
1009080706050403020100
Ko
st
en
p
ro
T
rx
. (
€)
Wert der Trx. (€)
11,63 €
33 In 2009 ist dieser Wert auf
Neumann, M.J.M. and von Hagen, J. (2002): Does Inflation Targeting Matter?, Federal
Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 84(4), pp. 127-148.
Orphanides, A. (2000): The Quest for Prosperity without Inflation [...] (1998): The euro: a challenge to, and opportunity for, the financial
markets, speech delivered at the 21st colloquium of SUERF and CFS in Frankfurt
on 15/10/1998, reprinted in BIS Review 84/1998, p. 1-6.
= l , geht ßt
gegen unendlich. Selbst wenn ßt#l, kam (18) unsinnige Resultate erbringen, falls St nicht
durchgehend unter ~f liegt. Diese Situation kam sich aber zwangsläufig ergeben, da die
[...] abgeschwächt wird, wodurch der Saisonfaktor von M 1 von dem-
jenigen der Transaktionsgröße abweicht. St wäre dementsprechend der Saisonfaktor von
M 1 und S: die Saisonkomponente des Privaten Verbrauchs [...] for Currency: 1s the Underground Economy Un-
dermining Monetary Policy? Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, Vol. 62, No. 1,
S. 11-17
Brand, Diana (1993), Currency Substitution in Developing
A., Stuttgart.
Görgens, E., Ruckriegel, K., Seitz, F. (2004b), Zur Problematik der LM-Kurve, WiSt, 33. Jg.,
S. 740-741.
Görgens, E., Ruckriegel, K. (2005), Zur Notwendigkeit unabhängiger Zentralbanken [...] Matter?, Remarks by Laurence H. Meyer at the 2001
Homer Jones Memorial Lecture, Washington University, St. Louis, Missouri, March 28,
2001.
Nelson, E. (2002), Direct Effects of Base Money on Aggregate [...] 197-216.
Rösl, G., Seitz, F., Tödter K.-H. (2005), Ein monetäres Makro-Modell für die Lehre, WiSt,
Heft 8, S. 446-452.
Romer, D. (2006), Advanced Macroeconomics, 3. A., Boston et al.
Ruckriegel
less pronounced when the share of banknotes that are not used for transactions increases.
While St can be calculated from the available data, Str
t is unknown and has to be ap-
proximated through [...] CHF 1000 banknote. As bank statements issued
for tax purposes show only the balance on December 31st, giving an incentive to withdraw cash
right before the end of December, end-of-month cash figures
20, 50.
Source: various central banks.
page
Rösl and Seitz
Page 115
decade of the 21st century (see Figure 1).
The second difference to the situation
around Y2K is that this time the stockpil-
4:19:06Z
resourceName /var/www/public/files/oth-aw/Professoren/Seitz/4_Ebenen_der_Geldpolitik_WiSt.pdf
pdf:hasXMP true
access_permission:extract_content true
access_permission:can_print true [...] gleichbedeutend mit der Nicht-
beachtung von Geldmengenentwicklungen im Allgemei-
nen ist.
698 WiSt Heft 12 · Dezember 2006
page
Von Uwe Neumann und Thomas Nagel
2. Auflage 2007. XVI, 345 [...] gelegt werden. Alle anderen Ebenen sind
letztlich dieser Ebene unterzuordnen. Das Endziel ist den
WiSt Heft 12 · Dezember 2006 699
page
Zentralbanken in der Regel durch ihre Statuten vom Ge-
Saisonalität im Inland stärker ausgeprägt ist als im Ausland, gilt für Werte größer 1: St < St
d, für
Werte kleiner 1: St > St
d.
25 Eine Alternative dazu findet sich in Seitz (1995), S. 29.
page [...] sinnvolle Ergebnisse. Wenn z.B. in irgendeiner Periode kein
saisonaler Einfluss vorliegt, d.h. St = St
d = 1, tendiert ßt gegen unendlich bzw. jeglicher Wert
von ß ist mit Gleichung (10) vereinbar [...] Reserve Bank of St.
Louis Review, 80(4), S. 43-54.
Anderson, R.G., Rasche, R.H. (2000), The Domestic Adjusted Monetary Base, Working
Paper 2000-002A, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
Bank
calculate moving 4-week averages. The rather moderate
development up to the beginning of the 21st century is clearly evident; the price
increases that subsequently ensued emerge clearly from the [...] f3 wti f3
Adj. R2: 0.69; standard error: 0.014; F‐statistic: 178.79; sample: 1st week 1999 until 43rd week 2009.
1 1 1 1
( 1.73) ( 58.81) ( 2.97) ( 2.20) ( 141.45) ( 3.27) [...] f3 wti f3
Adj. R2: 0.69; standard error: 0.013; F‐statistic: 183.19; sample: 1st week 1999 until 43rd week 2009.
1 1 1 1
( 1.90) ( 58.81) ( 2.97) ( 2.31) ( 141,45) ( 3,27)
wirtschaft, 56. Jg. (2001), S. 517 - 546.
Wagner, J.: Export, Direktinvestitionen oder Lizenzvergabe? In: WiSt, 22. Jg. (1993), S. 451 - 458.
Woll, A.: Allgemeine Volkswirtschaftslehre. 13. Aufl., München 2000
O
L
S
/
e
st
im
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ac
co
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f
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et
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og
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us
in
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cr
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s-
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io
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sp
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if
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e
st
im
at
es
o
[...]
le
ct
io
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P
ed
ro
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te
st
s:
in
di
vi
du
al
in
te
rc
ep
t a
nd
in
di
vi
du
al
tr
en
d;
K
ao
te
st
: i
nd
iv
id
ua
l i
nt
er
ce [...] E
G
R
A
T
IO
N
T
E
S
T
S
(
P
A
R
T
2
)
T
es
t s
ta
ti
st
ic
V
ar
ia
bl
es
: l
ca
sh
, s
e,
li
n,
lc
on
s,
ln
cp
V
ar
Timeless Perspective vs. Discretionary Monetary
Policy in Forward-Looking Models, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review,
March/April 2004, p. 43-56.
Mehra, Y.P. (2001): The Bond Rate and Estimated Monetary
58Z
resourceName /var/www/public/files/oth-aw/Professoren/Seitz/Geldbasis_Geldmenge__Zinssatz_WiSt07_06.pdf
pdf:hasXMP true
access_permission:extract_content true
access_permission:can_print [...] der Diskussion um die geldpoliti-
sche Rolle des Geldes der einflussreiche Artikel von Poole
412 WiSt Heft 7 · Juli 2006
page
(1970) gestiftet, der aufgrund einer vereinfachenden An-
nahme die [...] s per day ... . The Fed is a very
Görgens/Ruckriegel/Seitz, Geldbasis, Geldmenge, Zinssatz
WiSt Heft 7 · Juli 2006 413
page
small player in this market, with a typical daily transaction
Federal Reserve Banks) were poor. In the 1960s the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis started to develop research
activities (e.g. the St. Louis equation) by hiring young, bright economists. Soon after, the [...]
EMU enlargement. With up to 12 new members entering EU and EMU in the first decade of the
21st century the current procedures (one vote for each board member and for each NCB) cease to
be feasible
is real quarterly world GDP growth, ϑ(St) is the mean of regime St. Due to the quarterly
frequency of the data, we take up to four lags of GDP into account. St follows a Markov chain defined
by [...] Hamilton 1989), where we allow the intercept to be regime dependent.
Assuming a random variable, St ϵ {0,1,…N} where N denotes the unobserved regimes, the model can
be written as follows:
(1)
349–84.
Poole, W. (2005) Understanding the term structure of
interest rates, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Review, 87, 589–95.
Rao, B. B. (2007) Estimating short and long-run relation-
ships: a guide [...] the federal
funds and 10-year treasury rates: a conundrum or
Goodhart’s law?, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis,
Working Paper No. 2007-039A, September.
Tobin, J. (1965) Money and economic growth,
Econometrica
Stutt-
gart 2004a.
Görgens, E./Ruckriegel, K.,/Seitz, F.: Zur Problematik der LM-Kurve. In: WiSt, 33. Jg. (2004b), S. 740
- 741.
Görgens, E./ Ruckriegel, K./Seitz, F.: Geldpolitik, Zinsen und die
- 5.
Ruckriegel, K./Seitz, F.: EU-Erweiterung, Währungsunion
und Balassa-Samuelson-Effekt. In: WiSt, 32. Jg. (2003),
S. 94 - 100. (http://www.ruckriegel.org und http://
www.fh-amberg-weiden.de/home/
in (1)
and (2), respectively:
(1) �
∞
=
−=
st t
t
t
st
s p
cucußU ),( ,
(2) �
∞
=
−=
st t
tt
t
ft
t
st
s p
cue
p
cu
cußU ),,(* *
*
*
*
,*** ,
[...] (2001), Dollarization as a Monetary Arrangement for Emerging Market
Economies, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review, 83(6), November/December, pp. 29-39
(http://www.stls.frb.org).
Astley, M.S., Haldane [...] banks’ equity prices� by R. Gropp and G. Moerman, December 2003.
298 �The lender of last resort: a 21st century approach” by X. Freixas, B. M. Parigi and J.-C. Rochet,
December 2003.
299 �Import prices
meaningful results. If, for example,
there is no seasonal fluctuation in any given period, i. e. St = St
d = 1, equation (7) is
indeterminate. Moreover, if the seasonality of all outstanding banknotes [...] series of French banknote issuance
consists of three terms: a trend component Tt, a seasonal term St and an irregular or noise
component. These are multiplicatively interlinked (multiplicative seasonal [...]
1
.
1
t
t d
t
S
ß
S
The non-transactional share, in turn, is (1-ßt). St corresponds to the seasonal component of
total French cumulated net banknote issues and can be
C. (1998), Price Stability and Financial Stability: The Historical Record, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 80, 41-62.
biblio-Entry Borio, C.E.V. (1997), Monetary Policy Operating Procedures [...] Rates?, in: M. Belongia (ed.), Monetary Policy on the Fed’s 75th Anniversary, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Proceedings of the 14th Annual Economic Policy Conference , Norwell.
biblio-Entry Cukierman [...] Pakko, M.R. (1995), The FOMC in 1993 and 1994: Monetary Policy in Transition, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review 77, No. 2, 3-26.
biblio-Entry Persson, T. / Tabellini, G. (1994), Designing Institutions
for Germany)11
TtSt = Td
t Sd
t + Ta
t Sa
t . (3)
Let ˇt denote the fraction of the overall trend held domestically
and, consequently, (1 − ˇt) the share held abroad:
TtSt = ˇtTtS
d
t + (1 [...] unknown value ˇt, the share of banknotes held domestically:
ˇt = St − 1
Sd
t − 1
. (6)
The foreign share, in turn, is (1 − ˇt). St corresponds to the seasonal
component of total German cumulated [...] cash. Federal Reserve Bank of
St. Louis Review, 80(4), 43–54.
Anderson, R. G., & Rasche, R. H. (2000). The domestic adjusted monetary base, Federal
Reserve Bank of St. Louis working paper, 2000-002A
for Germany)11
TtSt = Td
t Sd
t + Ta
t Sa
t . (3)
Let ˇt denote the fraction of the overall trend held domestically
and, consequently, (1 − ˇt) the share held abroad:
TtSt = ˇtTtS
d
t + (1 [...] unknown value ˇt, the share of banknotes held domestically:
ˇt = St − 1
Sd
t − 1
. (6)
The foreign share, in turn, is (1 − ˇt). St corresponds to the seasonal
component of total German cumulated [...] cash. Federal Reserve Bank of
St. Louis Review, 80(4), 43–54.
Anderson, R. G., & Rasche, R. H. (2000). The domestic adjusted monetary base, Federal
Reserve Bank of St. Louis working paper, 2000-002A