websites are prohibited.
In most cases authors are permitted to post their version of the
article (e.g. in Word or Tex form) to their personal website or
institutional repository. Authors requiring further [...] , the European Central Bank and the University of Münster as well
as two anonymous referees for their valuable comments. In particular, we would
like to thank S. Arz for his contributions. The opinions [...] central banks in the euro area are connected
to TARGET2. There are no constraints on the size of their balances vis-à-vis the Euro-
pean Central Bank that emerge from the cross-border flow of interbank
Evans, 2005, among
others). However, Beck & Wieland actually base their
assumption on a couple of studies supporting their view
of relatively long-lasting misperceptions (see, e.g.,
Orphanides [...] financial intermediaries' role in determining the price of
risk. As these expand their balance sheets, their risk-
bearing capacity increases and risk premiums fall.
Thus, balance sheet quantities [...] various financial
intermediaries and their respective balance sheet
quantities. First, the information provided by institutions
that are marking-to-market their balance sheet items is
of superior
step, we use the
selected monetary and credit variables within different VAR models, and compare their forecasting
properties against a benchmark VAR model with GDP and the term spread. Our findings suggest [...] holding for Divisia money; Aksoy and Piskorski (2005; 2006) exclude
foreign holdings of cash in their analysis. In contrast, the older literature on the US economy usually
found that official monetary [...] June 2015 5
page
M2 and lagged growth rates of GDP) and t is a white noise error term. Their general conclusion is
that the term spread is especially useful in predicting real GDP growth
candidates for foreign holdings. By contrast, in the subset of
the other countries considered in their study, the tax ratio has a much larger
and significant effect, especially for high denomination notes [...] discount factor and
p(*) is the home (foreign) price level. Residents of the foreign country de-
mand their own currency cuf and the (stable and widely accepted) currency
cu. The variable cu
f
* represents [...] to the foreign country. Residents of this country hold both
the home currency (the euro) cu and their legal tender cu
f
. In order not to
overcomplicate issues we do not take into account possible
interested in gradually approaching the target rate.
Table 1: Monetary targets and their implementation
in %�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
�
Target: growth of the central bank money [...] alternative asset is regarded as opportunity costs. The so-called special savings facilities with their higher rates of interest are included explicitly in the own return (since the mid eighties). The yield [...] precise knowledge of the transmission process of monetary stimuli. If monetary targets (including their determinants) are not only applied in the internal decision-making process but when these targets
comprise the fees, possible loss in interest income and
the cost of providing their own resources (in particular, their own time). In this section,
an overall distinction is generally only made between [...] suppliers and costs for consumers. The suppliers, in turn, must meet
their expenditure for providing payment transaction services from their earnings. In
addition to the fees which they have to pay to payment [...] the
“elasticity of demand of customers”, whereby the banks are able to increase their inter-
est revenue or reduce their interest costs. This not only applies to current accounts
which are usually no
banking supervision which function adds to their total staffing.
12 For most central banks the reason to combine research and conjunctural activities is related to their relative small
size. For some central [...] experience of the institutions
making up the Eurosystem and the fact that it is their constituencies who assess their
performance cannot be forgotten. In the case of the Eurosystem, some of the principles [...] contributors on topics which are of special interest to the OeNB. To ensure the high quality of
their content, the contributions are subjected to an international refereeing process. The
opinions are
euro area
and the US, which aim to reduce the problems of
mismatches between the duration of their assets and
liabilities. It is generally perceived that these regula-
tory changes will favour [...] policy,
the business cycle and inflation expectations.
Although the out-of-sample performance of their
model was good, they conclude that, ‘there are hints
of some instability in the last years.’ [...] Pradhan (2006) reject
the existence of a conundrum. They state that ‘a drop
of bond yields below their fair value such as the one
seen last year did not represent a break with past
pattern and, as such
asymmetric passthrough of policy and money market rates to bank lending rates. The only country in their study where this is the case is Germany. There, the response is relatively fast with respect to increases [...] some theoretical arguments for asymmetric effects of monetary policy and tries to shortly assess their validity for Germany. Part 3 introduces the concept of monetary targeting and its implications for [...] transmission of monetary policy. It states that in the course of a tight monetary policy banks reduce their credit supply because of the informational asymmetries adverse selection and moral hazard. This credit
equation can be
derived by inverting (5.2) and replacing output, the interest rate and the
residual by their equilibrium values (yt � y�t ; it � i�; ut � 0). The long-run or
equilibrium rate of inflation implied [...] Ltd 2001
F. Seitz and K.-H. ToÈdter
page
geer-seitz 7.6.01 14:30
output growth by their current estimates and forecasts, respectively, we obtain
an expression for the monetary target for [...] the
credibility of the inflation targeting central bank that publishes them, leading
agents to base their inflation expectations on other sources of information'
(Leitemo, 2000, p. 32). Moreover, in an o
money supply. Instead, they adjust it to achieve a target for the interest rate, and they adjust
their interest-rate target in response to movements in output and inflation." oder etwa
Mehrling (2004
balances. On the other hand, they
also increase their demand for non-transaction balances to hedge against the mounting
uncertainty of their digitally stored savings (Assenmacher et al., 2017, [...] people tend to increase their cash holdings
especially in times of uncertainty as a means of payment and/or as a store of value, central
banks should also not restrict their banknote denominations [...] financial crisis 2008 and a global natural disaster (Covid-19), but
also detect some other crises in their econometric estimates in which cash holdings soared.
But without further analysis, it is hard
market
crises and financial market bubbles. Thereafter we examine the capital import restrictions and their effec-
tiveness. It turns out that the empirical evidence is ambiguous. Especially it has to be d [...] CANALES-KRILJENKO, J. I. /
KIRILENKO, A. (2000): Capital controls: Country experiences with their use and liberalization,
International Monetary Fund (IMF) Occasional Paper, No. 190, Washington D
is especially high in countries that do not have significant proportions of their currency
stock circulating outside their borders. This suggests a persistent role for cash as a store of
wealth [...] of 2008
until the second quarter of 2009 to their baseline model. Second, they introduce confidence,
financial market and wealth variables to their model. They expect increases in the stock of
[...] small share –
approximately 30% – was used for transaction purposes and hoarding in Germany.1 In their
opinion, 20% is a realistic figure for banknotes hoarded in Germany. Consequently, only
around
and the United States, which
aim to reduce the problems of mismatches between the duration of their assets and liabilities.
It is generally perceived that these regulatory changes will favor the [...] policy, the business cycle and inflation expectations. Although the out-of-sample
performance of their model was good, they conclude that, "there are hints of some instabilities
in the last years" [...] Pradhan (2006) find that a conundrum no longer exists. They
state that "a drop of bond yields below their fair value such as the one seen last year did not
represent a break with past pattern and, as
expectation of rising oil prices could, for example, prompt
the industrialized countries to increase their inventories. Security considerations
could also play a role in this respect.
We augment this [...]
oil prices follow a stochastic trend, they must all follow the same trend irrespective of
their maturity, i.e. the price differences between (arbitrarily selected) price pairs are
stationary [...] those of a random walk without drift or the optimised
ARIMA model.
10 Reitz et al. (2009) show in their analysis that oil price forecasts on the basis of survey data from
Consensus Economics never beat
money supply. Instead, they adjust it to achieve a target for the interest rate, and they adjust
their interest-rate target in response to movements in output and inflation." oder etwa
Mehrling (2004
necessarily represent those of the Swiss National Bank.
Working Papers describe research in progress. Their aim is to
elicit comments and to further debate.
COPYRIGHT©
The Swiss National Bank (SNB) [...] via the internet, etc.) for
non-commercial purposes and provided that the source is menti-
oned. Their use for commercial purposes is only permitted with
the prior express consent of the SNB.
General [...] of US dollars. Central banks also have an interest in monitoring cash develop-
ments because of their role in operating the payment system. If banknotes are predominantly
demanded for hoarding purposes
process
may differ substantially from their ex-post revised values. Real-time
uncertainty about key variables, like actual and potential output (and their
rates of growth), opens up a role for [...] and Beck and Wieland (2007, 2008) all restrict their
attention to optimal discretionary policy. Our interest in simple rules is
motivated by their potential advantages over discretionary policy. [...] that the interpretation of the
available data often depends on the assessment of their development relative
to their trend or long-run equilibrium levels that are unobservable and can
only be estimated
specific types of
crisis (technological crisis, financial market crisis,
natural disaster) and their effects on the demand for
cash in an international context. As evidence from
the last 30 years shows [...] 1992/93, the (geo-)political crisis after the
9/11 attacks in 2001 and the Euro crisis in
2010/11. In their nature, however, these crises
were effectively confidence crises and hence
do not differ greatly [...] might
reflect precautionary motives as commer-
cial banks in these countries also quickly
increased their vault cash.19 For the US
dollar, the euro and the Swiss franc, again,
foreign non-transactional
current level of income, any attempt to
increase the money supply leads them to adjust their portfolios to limit their money holdings.
These portfolio changes lead to changes in relative yields on financial [...] in shaping the dynamic behaviour of
output, inflation and interest rates. A distinctive feature of their VAR analysis is that both the variables included in
the system and the identifying restrictions used [...] production as a proxy for real activity, real M1, the term spread and
inflation. The major result of their paper is that the combined contribution of these monetary
disturbances for real economic fluctuations
possible factor explaining
why the Fed is sometimes slow to increase interest rates and so smooths out their
fluctuations is that it wishes to avoid a conflict with the president and Congress over
increases [...] explained by a symbiosis
of central bankers who may have partially sympathised with RPD since it masked
their responsbility for short term interest rates, and academics who were too eager to
simplify away some [...] relationship of the monetary aggregates to spending, the
behavior of the aggregates relative to their annual ranges will likely be of limited use
in guiding policy (...), and the Federal Reserve will
digen. „… investors will miss no opportunity to test the resolve of go-
vernments in maintaining their exchange rate target.“20 Auslöser ist, dass
eine Währung unter Abwertungsverdacht gerät. Ein Spekulant
German tourists
take a similar amount of coins with them when travel-
ling both from and to their home country.3 However,
as Bartzsch et al. (2011b) find, ‘German’ banknotes
also circulate in [...] participants of
seminars at the Deutsche Bundesbank and the
Oesterreichische Nationalbank for their comments.
The opinions expressed in this article represent
those of the authors and do not necessarily
the total volume of
circulation of these two smallest euro denomination
notes is only about 20%. Their calculations are based
on return flows of banknotes to the central bank and
simple accounting. Usually [...] of all notes (ES1 and
ES2) paid in to the above category 1 branches at a
specific month t* after their introduction from coun-
tries outside the euro area. Variable m stands for the
value of all ES2 notes