t
t
t
i
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i
ygap
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i
e
r
r
p
a
r
r
a
r
p
p
a
p
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+
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+
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-
+
×
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-
+
-
=
×
+
[...] ygap
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e
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-
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+
=
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(
*
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p
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Durch die Verwendung der (erwarteten) Inflation auf der rechten Seite dieser Gleichung [...] t
Tay
t
ygap
ß
r
i
×
+
-
×
+
+
=
*)
(
*
p
p
a
p
Ein vorausschauendes Verhalten der Geldpolitik käme darin zum Ausdruck, daß bei und ygap
to a misinterpretation of currency developments.
Acknowledgement
I am grateful to B. Fischer, P. Köhler and an anonymous referee for helpful comments.
References
Banco de España, 1996. Determinantes [...] Boeschoten, W.C., 1992. Currency Use and Payments Patterns. Kluwer Academic Publishers, Dordrecht.
Köhler, P., Fischer, B., Seitz, F., 2004. The demand for euro area currencies: past, present, future. ECB Working
p
τ
(8) ),,(**)1(),,( *
1
*
11
*
1
*
1,*
1
*
*
*
*
*
,**
*
+
++
+
+
++=
t
tt
t
tf
tc
t
tt
t
tf
tc p
cue
p
cu
cußr
p
cue
p
cu [...] tf
tc
tt
tt
t
tf
tpcu
tt
tt
t
tf
tc
t p
cue
p
cu
cuß
pp
cue
p
cu
cu
pp
cue
p
cu
cu
p f
(10) ),,(*1),,(1),,(1
*
1
*
11
*
1
*
1,*
1 [...] tf
tc
tt
tt
t
tf
tpcu
tt
tt
t
tf
tc
t p
cue
p
cu
cuß
pp
cue
p
cu
cu
pp
cue
p
cu
cu
p
Conditions (6) and (7) refer to home optimisation, (8) � (10) to
Max LR F-statistic 2.05 1.68 1.98 1.45 2.15
Hansen P-value (0.36) (0.51) (0.28) (0.71) (0.47)
Exp LR F-statistic 0.43 0.54 0.42 0.42 0.43
Hansen P-value (0.78) (0.60) (0.85) (0.84) (0.69)
Ave LR [...] 1.06 0.79 0.82 0.78
Hansen P-value (0.64) (0.37) (0.73) (0.68) (0.61)
Chow Breakpoint test
Date 2008Q3 2008Q1 2009Q2 2001Q1 200Q1
F-statistic 2.05 1.68 1.98 1.45 2.15
P-value (F-test) (0.06) (0.10) [...] Gogas, P. (2014). Divisia monetary aggregates, the great rations and classical money demand functions. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking,
46, 229–241.
Serletis, A., Istiak, K., & Gogas, P. (2013)
t t p t n t t n y t t ti i E p p E y yρ φ φ (11)
( ) ( ) ( ))*, *
2 1( )Δ −+ ⋅ Δ − Δ − + ⋅ Δ − Δ + ⋅ Δ Ω − Δ + ⋅ +T est
p t t t y t t m t t t t tp p y y E m m iφ η φ φ ρ ν
with p2 1 2 1 [...] 9 8
O u t p u t ga p *
C h a n ge in o u t p u t ga p ( f - q ) *
- 4
- 2
0
2
4
6
8
7 4 7 6 7 8 8 0 8 2 8 4 8 6 8 8 9 0 9 2 9 4 9 6 9 8
R e a l o u t p u t gr o w t [...]
= − + Δ + ⋅ Δ −Δ Ω + ⋅ − Ω
+ ⋅ Δ −Δ Ω + ⋅ Δ −Δ Ω + +
T T
t t n p t n t n t y t t t
y t t t m t t t t t
i p E p p E y y
E y y E m m i
ρ α φ φ
φ φ ρ μ
(12)
where the m
doi:10.30845/jbep.v7n2p2
24
Pedroni, P (2001), Purchasing Power Parity Tests in Cointegrated Panels, Review of Economics and Statistics 83, 727-
731.
Pedroni, P (2004), Panel Cointegration: [...] June 2020 doi:10.30845/jbep.v7n2p2
14
The IPS relies on the t-statistics of the ADF regression. The Fisher-ADF and the Fisher PP use p-values from individual
unit root tests [...] (2012) show that the P-DOLS estimator performs best across a large set of experiments. They confirm
evidence of Kao & Chiang (2001). Therefore, we prefer and present the results of the P-DOLS methodology
underground
economy and the ‘‘tax gap’’. MPRA Discussion Paper 19564. December.
Fischer, B., Köhler, P., Seitz, F., 2004. The demand for Euro area currencies: past,
present and future. European Central Bank
beigetragen. Einen besonderen Dank schulden wir H. Asche (Deutsche Bundesbank), U. Bindseil
(EZB), H. P. Bisani (FH Deggendorf), J. Clostermann (FH Ingolstadt), B. Fischer (EZB), D.
Gerdesmeier (EZB) [...] Hofmann (Deutsche Bundesbank), C. Knoppik
(Universität Regensburg), J. v. Landesberger (EZB), P. Lenggrießer (Deutsche Bundesbank), W.
Quaisser (Osteuropa-Institut München), H. Rottmann (FH A
Denmark.
De Grauwe, P., Buyst, E. & L. Rinaldi (2000a), The Costs of Cash and Cards Compared:
The Cases of Iceland and Belgium, University of Leuven, February.
De Grauwe, P., Buyst, E. & L. Rinaldi [...]
0,8
1,0
1,2
KreditkarteE-Geld
DebitkarteBargeld
1009080706050403020100
Ko
st
en
p
ro
T
rx
. (
€)
Wert der Trx. (€)
11,63 €
33 In 2009 ist dieser Wert auf 3,06 € gesunken [...] Baumol-Tobin-Modell bei einem durchschnittlichen Abhebe-
betrag pro Monat von 450 €, einem Zinssatz p.a. von 3 % und drei Abhebungen am
GAA pro Monat Kosten pro Abhebung von 0,063 € errechnen. Bei der
suggestions by B. Fischer, D. Gerdesmeier, C. Johansen, A.
Lojschova, M. Morelli, B. Roffia, P. Spahn, P. Welz and the participants of a monetary policy
seminar at the European Central Bank. The views [...] endowed with
“money” (i.e. m=1) with probability p. Consequently, the probability of someone not
having money at his disposal (i.e. m=0) is 1–p. If we define Vm to be the payoff of an
agent with [...] good with utility U.
[ ]0 0 1 0φ
αδ ασ φ= + − + − + −V ßV (U C ) p max C ß(V V )
[ ]1 1 0 11αδ ασ ϕ= + − + − + −V ßV (U C ) ( p ) U ß(V V )
page
- 27 -
More formally, in a system
early 1990s, with a second peak in 1991Q4 (amounting to 4.72 p.p.). Except for a short
time span in the mid-1990s (with a peak of –1.88 p.p. in 1994Q2), there is little
evidence of sizable downward [...] in which money directly
enters the Phillips curve.
49 See Issing (1995), p. 588 and p. 607.
50 See Schlesinger (2002), p. 147.
page
25
monetary target, we would not have responded so early [...]
51 See Schlesinger (1985), p. 91.
52 On the last two points, see e.g. Masuch et al. (2003).
53 See Schlesinger (1980), p. 35.
54 Richter (1999), p. 550.
page
26
less emphasis
Decision ECB/2001/15 of 6 December 2001
on the issue of euro banknotes, OJ L 337, 20 December 2001, p 52, as amended.
page
7
Table 1: Cumulated net issuance of euro banknotes up to [...] (see Figure 4).
12 Scheiber and Stix (2009, p 6) use surveys based on random sampling in central, eastern and south-eastern
European countries to [...] keeping euro banknotes is for making purchases or holidaying in the euro area.
13 See ECB (2010), p 35 ff.
page
10
Figure 4: Cumulated net shipments of euro banknotes via commercial
zu einer (Zwangs-)Nachfrage nach Zentralbankgeld (Banknoten und Guthaben bei
der Zentralbank — P.1 und P.2 in Abb. 2) seitens der Kreditinstitute. Theoretisch ist aber
auch denkbar, dass die Zentralbanken [...] ute die Mindestreserve in Form
von Guthaben bei der Zentralbank (P.2 in Abb. 2) oder in Form von Bargeldbeständen
(bis auf Münzen in P.1 in Abb. 2 enthalten) halten. Beim Fed werden Guthaben und Bar-
[...] Passiva
A. 1: Währungsreserven P. 1: Banknotenumlauf
A. 2a: Forderungen an Kreditinstitute P. 2: Verbindlichkeiten gegenüber
A. 2b: Bestand an (staatlichen) Kre
on
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Kaiser-Wilhelm-Ring 23
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The demand for Swiss banknotes: some new evidence∗ [...] peak in December and no visible peak in the summer months for both
countries (see Fischer et al. 2004, p. 54). More recent data for Sweden, however, exhibit noticeable seasonal
movements in the summer months [...] domestic money, inflation and output, Journal of Mone-
tary Economics (53): 183–197.
Anderson, P. S. (1977). Currency in use and in hoards, New England Economic Review, Federal
Reserve Bank of Boston
401 401
Feld, L. P., & Schneider, F. (2010). Survey on the shadow economy and undeclared
earnings in OECD countries. German Economic Review, 11, 109–149.
Fischer, B., Köhler, P., & Seitz, F. (2004 [...] accounted for between 25% and 35%
of the total demand for Bundesbank-issued euro banknotes. The
ECB (2011, p. 31) states that “taking into account a range of dif-
ferent estimates suggests that around 20–25% [...] billion).
3. The seasonal method
The general problem can be formulated as follows (Feige, 1997,
p. 184)8:
The shares ˇ1 and ˇ2 of two subpopulations C1 and C2, which
together produce the total population
real terms although in the short term a price elasticity of less than 1 (in terms of the GDP deflator p) is allowed. Real GDP (yr) and a reunification dummy (dum), whose function is to capture the disproportional [...] or reference interest rate. While a price homogeneity of one is assumed in the long term, the term (p is used to test the existence of short-term money illusion. The reunification dummy (dum) is zero up [...] �
(yr�
0.14 (2.30)�
-�
�
oc�
�
-0.89 (-5.68)�
�
oct-1�
-0.71 (-5.65)�
�
�
p�
-0.94 (-6.07)�
-1.22 (-6.05)�
�
(m3t-1�
0.07 (1.58)�
0.11 (2.25)�
�
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0.13 (13
much is abroad?, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System,
Oktober 1995; und B. Fischer, P. Köhler, F. Seitz: The Demand for Euro
Area Currencies: Past, Present and Future, Working Paper 330
Paper Nr. 11, Dezember.
Diebold, F.X. (2004), Elements of Forecasting, 3. A.,
Thomson.
Kilian, L. & M.P. Taylor (2003), Why is it so Difficult
to Beat the Random Walk Forecast of Exchange Ra-
tes?, Journal
r /F
. S
e
itz
F
in
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m
a
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tk
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B
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ISBN: 978-3-86550-332-9
Christina Beer, Dipl. Betriebswirtin
02)p1(!s
psqq)L(E π
−
+=
Mit s=1 reduziert sich )L(E auf die Gleichung des M/M/1-Warteschlangensystems.
Mit µλµλµλ /s/p,/q →== ergibt sich:
p1
p
p1
2p2pp
p1
2p)p1(p
p1
[...] LL+++++++= )2sS(P)2sS/B(P)1sS(P)1sS/B(P)sS(P)sS/B(P)B(P
oder kurz: LL,3s,2s,1s,si;
si
)iS(P)iS/B(P)B(P +++=
∞
=
= ∑
Für )iS/B(P schreiben wir anschaulich
[...] t)qs(e1
)p1(!s
sq0)0sT(P)tsT(P µπ . Mit
)p1(!s
sq01)0sT(P
−
⋅
−==
π (siehe Seite 319)
finden wir
t)qs(e
)p1(!s
sq0
)p1(!s
sq0
)p1(!s
sq01t)qs(e1
)p1(!s
sq0
)p1(!s
sq01)tsT(P
die nur unter gegenseitigem
Ausschluss betreten werden dürfen. Die Simulation der dafür notwendigen
P/V-Operationen in einem zentralen Algorithmus und die Strategie zur
Vermeidung von deadlocks bei vielfachem
3
1.1.2 Die maximale Wahrscheinlichkeit von p1 8
1.2 Die Erfolgswahrscheinlichkeit